Miami-Dade County Single-Family Home Sales on Pace to Beat Last Year’s Total; Existing Condo $600K and Up Sales Surge Vs. Pre-Covid

Miami-Dade County single-family home sales rose year-over-year in Q2 2024 and are on pace to surpass last year’s total as $600K and up existing condo transactions surged 99% versus pre-COVID (June 2019), according to statistics released by the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the MIAMI Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service (SEFMLS).

 

“Miami condo demand for properties priced above $600,000 are significantly outperforming pre-COVID sales numbers,” MIAMI Chairman of the Board Gus Fonte said. “While active condo listings are up year-over-year, Miami condo inventory is still 38% below pre-COVID.”

 

Miami Single-Family Homes Post More Sales in First Half of 2024 vs. First Half of 2023

Miami-Dade County single-family homes posted a stronger first half of 2024 versus last year with transactions up 2.3%, from 5,457 in 1H 2023 to 5,582 in 1H 2024.

Miami-Dade single-family home sales rose 2.9% year-over-year in Q2 2024, from 3,044 in Q2 2023 to 3,133 in Q2 2024. Miami condo sales declined 7.5% year-over-year in Q2 2024, from 3,954 to 3,657.

 

As for June 2024, Miami-Dade total sales decreased 13.2% year-over-year, from 2,364 to 2,051. Miami single-family sales declined 3.8% year-over-year, from 1,004 to 966. Miami-Dade single-family sales have posted gains in six of the last eight months.

 

Miami existing condo sales decreased 20.2% year-over-year in June 2024, from 1,360 to 1,085. The decline is due to a lack of inventory at key price points and elevated mortgage rates. Also, there is the unknown regarding the upcoming presidential election and new state regulatory condominium building changes that go into effect in 2025. Senate Bill 4-D mandates comprehensive structural safety inspections and the establishment of structural integrity reserve studies for buildings three stories or taller.

 

Miami Condo Inventory is Down Vs. Pre-COVID and $600K and Up Condo Demand is Up

Inventory is down 38% for Miami condos in comparison to pre-COVID, from 15,488 listings in June 2019 to 9,601 in June 2024.

 

Condos priced at $600K and above have rising demand versus pre-COVID (June 2019), an important marker as the ultra-low interest rates the market enjoyed from 2020-22 likely won’t return.

 

$600K and up existing Miami condo transactions surged 99.3% versus pre-COVID (June 2019), from 150 transactions in June 2019 to 299 in June 2024.

 

$1M and up existing Miami condo transactions jumped 85.5% versus pre-COVID (June 2019), from 76 sales in June 2019 to 141 in June 2024.

 

The sales numbers point to the wealth migration South Florida has received since the 2020 global pandemic.

 

Migration Bolstered South Florida’s Household Income by $10 Billion

Migration bolstered Southeast Florida’s aggregate household income by at least $10 billion in 2022, according to a new Miami Association of REALTORS® (MIAMI) analysis of the recently released Internal Revenue Service migration data.

 

In Miami-Dade County, the average adjusted gross income of households who moved to the county (total adjusted gross income of movers divided by number of tax returns) was $175,600, which is 78% higher than the average income of households who left the county ($98,800) and 79% higher than the income of households who lived in the same county ($98,100).

 

Miami ranks No. 1 in the U.S. in luxury residential market price growth, via Knight Frank’s 2024 Wealth Report. The same publication also ranked Miami among the Emerging Wealth Hubs. Miami is also ranked the No. 4 U.S. City for Millionaire Growth Rate over the Past Decade (75% increase), according to Henley & Partners and New World Wealth 2024 report.

 

MIAMI Chief Economist: Interest Rates Poised to be Below 6% by End of 2025

Mortgage rates are poised to decrease as many expect an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut with signs that the U.S. economy could be slowing down.

 

“Higher interest rates took a toll on home sales in the first half of the year except in Miami-Dade County which has seen continued strong migration from high-income movers and job growth that has outpaced the nation,” MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist Gay Cororaton said. “I expect a broader recovery in the second half of the year. The housing market downturn has reached its end, with interest rates poised to continue to decline to below 7% for the remainder of the year and below 6% by end of 2025.”

 

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage 6.77% as of July 18. That’s down from 6.89% one week ago and 6.78% one year ago.

 

Miami-Dade Inventory is Still Down 33.4% From Historical Average

Total inventory is down 33.4% from the historical average for Miami. The monthly historical average for Miami-Dade existing inventory is 20,302 and current inventory is at 13,517.

 

Total active listings at the end of June increased 49.7% year-over-year, from 9,027 to 13,517.

 

Inventory of single-family homes increased 35% year-over-year in June 2024 from 2,911 active listings last year to 3,929 last month. Condominium inventory increased 56.8% year-over-year from 6,116 to 9,588 listings during the same period in 2023.

 

Months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes is 4.4 months, which indicates a seller’s market. Inventory for existing condominiums is 8.9 months, which indicates a balanced market. A balanced market between buyers and sellers offers between six- and nine-months supply.

 

Nationally, total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from one year ago (1.07 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months in June 2023. The last time unsold inventory posted a four-month supply was May 2020 (4.5 months).

 

Miami Single-Family Home Prices Have Risen 245.8% Since June 2012

Miami-Dade County single-family home median prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in June 2024, increasing from $622,500 to $657,000. Miami single-family median prices have risen for 151 consecutive months (12.5 years), the longest running-streak on record.

 

Miami single-family prices have risen 245.8% from June 2012 to June 2024, from $190,000 to $657,000.

 

Existing condo median prices increased 0.5% year-over-year in June 2024, from $418,000 to $420,000. Condo median prices have stayed even or increased in 151 of the last 157 months.

 

Miani condo prices have risen 162.5% from June 2012 to June 2024, from $160,000 to $420,000.

 

Miami ended 2023 as the highest appreciating U.S. housing market via CoreLogic.

 

Florida’s Live Local Act, which was passed in 2023 and amended in May 2024, is encouraging developers to build more affordable housing. The Live Local Act gives developers the highest density allowed in a local area if they allocate 40% of its units for affordable housing. The state law defines an affordable unit as being at or below 120% of an area’s median income.

 

Despite the increase in prices, Miami remains a value in comparison to other global cities. In Miami, $1M nets you at least 60 square meters of prime property, according to the 2024 Knight Frank The Wealth Report. This is much higher than other global cities: Sydney, Australia ($1M only purchases 43 square meters), Shanghai (42), Paris (40), Los Angeles (38), New York (34), Geneva (34), London (33), Singapore (32), Hong Kong (22) and Monaco (16).

 

Miami Real Estate Posts $252 Million Local Economic Impact in June 2024
Every time a home is sold it impacts the economy: income generated from real estate industries (commissions, fees and moving expenses), expenditures related to home purchase (furniture and remodeling expenses), multiplier of housing related expenditures (income earned as a result of a home sale is re-circulated into the economy) and new construction (additional home sales induce added home production).

 

The total economic impact of a typical Florida home sale is $123,000, according to NAR. Miami-Dade sold 2,051 homes in June 2024 for a local economic impact of $252.2 million.

 

Miami total dollar volume totaled $2 billion in June 2024. Single-family home dollar volume increased 17.15% year-over-year to $1.2 billion. Condo dollar volume decreased 11.84% year-over-year to $830 million.

 

Miami Distressed Sales Remain Low, Reflecting Healthy Market
Only 1.1% of all closed residential sales in Miami were distressed last month, including REO (bank-owned properties) and short sales, lower than 1.4% in June 2023. In 2009, distressed sales comprised 70% of Miami sales.

 

Short sales and REOs accounted for 0.2% and 0.8% year-over-year, respectively, of total Miami sales in June 2024.

 

Miami’s percentage of distressed sales are lower than the national figure. Nationally, distressed sales represented 2% of sales in June 2024, virtually unchanged from last month and the prior year.

 

Miami Sales, Appreciation Outperforming Nation, State

In Florida, closed sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 23,183 in June 2024, down 11.1% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 8,339, down 20.5%. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

 

Nationally, total existing-home sales completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million in June. Year-over-year, sales also dropped 5.4% (down from 4.11 million in June 2023).

 

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes was $427,000, up 1.7% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $324,900, even with last year. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

 

Nationally, the median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $426,900, an all-time high and an increase of 4.1% from one year ago ($410,100). All four U.S. regions registered price gains.

 

Miami Real Estate Attracting Near List Price
The median percent of original list price received for single-family homes was 96.5% in June 2024. The median percent of original list price received for existing condominiums was 94.9%.

 

The median number of days between listing and contract dates for Miami single-family home sales was 28 days, up from 27 days last year. The median time to sale for single-family homes was 69 days, down from 71 days last year.

 

The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for condos was 50 days, up from 32 days. The median number of days to sale for condos was 90 days, up from 77 days.

 

Miami Cash Sales 35.4% More than National Figure
Cash sales represented 37.9% of Miami closed sales in June 2024, compared to 43.5% in June 2023. About 28% of U.S. home sales are made in cash, according to the latest NAR statistics.

 

Cash buyers are not deterred by rising rates. The high percentage of cash buyers reflects Miami’s top position as the preeminent American real estate market for foreign buyers, who tend to purchase with all cash as well as some moving from more expensive U.S. markets who can buy more with their profits from real estate sales.

 

Cash sales accounted for 49.9% of all Miami existing condo sales and 24.6% of single-family transactions.

 

To access June 2024 Miami-Dade Statistical Reports, visit http://www.SFMarketIntel.com

 

Note: Statistics in this news release may vary depending on reporting dates. MIAMI reports exact statistics directly from its MLS system.